Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, continuing gains from last week, as investors bet that OPEC+ will cut production further to support prices. Prices have fallen for four weeks straight due to easing concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.Brent crude futures climbed 0.7% to $81.18 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.7% to $76.40 a barrel.
OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is scheduled to meet on November 26 to discuss production policy. Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters that the group is considering deeper cuts, given the recent fall in oil prices.
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note that their statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper cuts are possible, given the fall in speculative positioning and timespreads, and higher-than-expected inventories.WTI prices could rise toward $80 a barrel if OPEC+ announces deeper cuts at its upcoming meeting. However, a drop below $72 would encourage the Biden administration to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Investors are also watching for disruptions in Russian crude oil trade after Washington imposed sanctions on three ships that have sent Sokol crude to India.On Friday, Moscow lifted a ban on gasoline exports, which could add to global supplies of the motor fuel. This comes after Russia scrapped most restrictions on exports of diesel last month.
In the Middle East, U.S. and Israeli officials said a deal to free some of the hostages held in the besieged Gaza enclave was edging closer despite fierce fighting.U.S. energy firms also added oil and gas rigs for the first time in three weeks last week, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. The oil and gas rig count is an early indicator of future output.