HG MARKETS:

Gold prices hovered just above the $3,100 mark on Friday, struggling to gain upward traction as markets reacted to renewed selling pressure amid lingering geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. Although there was an early attempt to rebound, the yellow metal stayed under pressure following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on imports. These measures have added to concerns around global trade tensions and the potential for an economic slowdown, possibly nudging the U.S. economy toward a recession.

Despite these headwinds, gold continues to draw support from its role as a safe-haven asset, especially with broader market sentiment leaning cautious. Analysts point out that the escalation in tariffs is rekindling fears about economic stability, helping gold retain a solid base even as downward forces persist.

Silver also tracked lower, slipping to around $31.40 in line with wider weakness in both commodities and equity markets. The industrial demand for silver makes it more reactive to shifts in economic growth expectations, yet it still benefits from safe-haven appeal. A stronger U.S. dollar ahead of the key Nonfarm Payrolls report added to the downward pressure, but expectations of softer labor data could cushion further declines.

One of the main anchors for gold’s resilience is the market’s expectation of a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in up to four interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4% for the first time in six months, weakening the dollar and increasing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Futures markets now show a 64% probability of a rate cut by July, which continues to support gold even as it consolidates ahead of the labor data.

Gold is currently trading in a narrow range near $3,100, supported by safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations. While the market remains cautious ahead of the jobs report, a move above $3,119 could trigger fresh upside momentum. Otherwise, the metal is likely to stay in consolidation mode.

Technically, gold has found support around $3,055, bouncing from the lower edge of its rising channel. The trend remains bullish as long as this support holds. Short-term resistance lies near $3,119, and a breakout above this could bring $3,152 into focus. The 50-day EMA near $3,109 is a key hurdle, while the 200-day EMA around $3,048 reinforces the broader bullish structure. A drop below $3,085 might indicate rising bearish momentum, potentially targeting $3,054 or lower. For now, gold appears to be stabilizing after a sharp correction and could be setting the stage for another upward leg if uncertainty continues to support risk-averse flows.