HG MARKETS: 

Gold prices moved lower today, trading near $4,150, as the metal gave back part of its recent recovery from the nine-week low around the key $4,100 level.

Gold remains range bound within the $4,100–$4,200 zone as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes. The minutes could provide fresh clues about the Fed’s interest-rate outlook and the direction of monetary policy in the coming months.

The precious metal continues to face mixed fundamental drivers. Reduced expectations of an October rate hike, strong central-bank demand, and ongoing global debt and geopolitical concerns are limiting downside pressure. China’s gold reserves also increased to around 2,409.6 metric tons by the end of September, highlighting continued official-sector demand.

However, higher energy prices are keeping inflation concerns elevated, while rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar continue to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold. These factors have maintained a bearish tone in the short term despite supportive longer-term fundamentals.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. Expectations for an October hike have eased following softer inflation data and weaker-than-expected September employment figures, although markets still see a possibility of further tightening later in the year.

Investors will now focus on the FOMC Minutes, US crude oil inventory data, developments in the Middle East, and movements in US Treasury yields. Any hawkish signals from the Fed could strengthen the Dollar and add further pressure on Gold, while dovish comments could support a recovery.

From a technical perspective, Gold remains bearish in the near term, trading around $4,139.40 and below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs at $4,332.12, $4,267.61, and $4,530.95, respectively. The RSI near 39 indicates negative momentum, although it remains above oversold territory, supporting a sell-on-bounce view.

On the downside, the key structural support is near $3,999, around the rising support trend line. A daily close below this level could extend the corrective decline toward deeper support zones. On the upside, resistance is seen at $4,267, followed by $4,332 and $4,531; a sustained break above these levels would be required to weaken the current bearish outlook.