Harvest Global Markets :

In August, the Canadian employment landscape showed a notable increase of 40,000 jobs, indicating a 0.2% growth. However, this positive development was tempered by a substantial population surge of 103,000, leading to a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the employment rate, settling at 61.9%. This decline underscores the challenge of job growth not keeping pace with the expanding population, unlike the period from 2017 to 2019 when monthly employment gains of around 25,000 were needed to maintain a stable employment rate amidst a population increase of 38,000.

Examining employment shifts across age groups, core-aged individuals (25-54) experienced growth, with men gaining 33,000 jobs and women adding 21,000 to their employment numbers. However, employment for women aged 55 and above decreased by 27,000. Youth employment displayed mixed patterns, with female youth gaining 32,000 jobs, while their male counterparts saw a decline of 29,000.

In terms of industries, August witnessed positive employment trends in sectors such as professional, scientific, and technical services (adding 52,000 jobs) and construction (increasing by 34,000). Conversely, the educational services and manufacturing sectors faced setbacks, shedding 44,000 and 30,000 jobs, respectively. Regionally, Alberta, British Columbia, and Prince Edward Island experienced employment growth, while Nova Scotia saw a decline.

The unemployment rate in August remained stable at 5.5%, but variations were observed among demographic groups. Core-aged women saw a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment, while male youth experienced a 2.5 percentage point increase. Over the past year, there was a notable rise in the unemployment rate for male and female youth by 1.6 and 1.9 percentage points, respectively.

Looking ahead, there is a need for close monitoring as the steady unemployment rate, coupled with employment gains being overshadowed by population growth, presents potential challenges. The current dynamics highlight the importance of addressing disparities across sectors and demographics to achieve a balanced economy. Short-term sentiment leans cautiously optimistic, given the diverse employment trends observed.