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HG Markets

The Currency Market Is Quiet While Investors Watch US Election and Jobs Report

HG MARKETS:

As investors anticipated the U.S. jobs data to show economic resilience ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week, the dollar remained stable against its major counterparts on Friday. Following pressure against the yen and on Thursday, the U.S. dollar began the month not far from a one-week low. However, as investors trimmed back aggressive Fed rate cut wagers and considered the U.S. election outlook, the greenback saw its largest monthly gains in little over two years in October. This week ends with U.S. nonfarm payroll data. According to Reuters polled economists, 113,000 new jobs were created in October, however analysts think the figure may have been influenced by recent disasters.

The unemployment rate, according to analysts, will probably provide a more accurate indication of the state of the labor market as a whole. It is anticipated to register at 4.1%. The dollar index, which compares the US dollar to six other major currencies, increased by 0.09% to 103.97 last time. As domestic traders were more cautious ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan despite significant risk events, the yen lost some of its gains from Thursday, falling 0.31% to 152.49 per dollar.

However, the currency was well off a three-month low of 152.885 earlier this week due to fewer dovish remarks made by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda after the central bank decided to remain unchanged on Thursday. Although they pointed out that variables like the dollar/yen exchange rate and inflation statistics prior to the year-end decision will be significant, their base case is still for the BOJ to hike rates once more in January to 0.5%. Only a few days after Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, the Fed will make its monetary policy decision next week. Although Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump are still even in a number of polls, some investors have started placing bets that Trump would prevail, which has caused the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to rise. Considered inflationary, Trump’s promises to lower taxes, relax banking rules, and increase tariffs may impede the Fed’s policy-easing agenda.

Elsewhere, a private sector survey released Friday revealed that China’s manufacturing activity rebounded to growth in October as a surge in new orders boosted production growth. According to separate data, China’s new housing prices increased more quickly in October. The onshore yuan was down 0.06% at 7.1219, while the offshore yuan was down roughly 0.12% at 7.1295 per dollar. Supported this week by statistics indicating that euro zone inflation surged more than anticipated in October, the euro was trading at a two-week high against the US dollar. At $1.0877, it was down 0.06% most recently. After plunging to its lowest level since mid-August at $1.28445 on Thursday, sterling was largely flat at $1.2901.

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