HG MARKETS:

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday, marking their fourth consecutive daily decline and the first weekly loss in three weeks. The downturn was driven by renewed trade tensions and expectations of increased supply from the OPEC+ alliance. Brent crude futures slipped by $1.03, or 1.6%, to $63.41 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.07, or 1.8%, to $60.13. The bearish momentum reflects growing concerns over global supply-demand dynamics. President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions on Friday by recommending a 50% tariff on all goods imported from the European Union, effective June 1. Citing ongoing difficulties in trade negotiations, the move has added another layer of uncertainty to global markets.

Meanwhile, focus remains on the upcoming OPEC+ meetings, where the alliance is widely expected to approve a further production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July. According to Reuters, the group may fully unwind the remaining 2.2 million bpd of voluntary production cuts by the end of October, following earlier output hikes totaling around 1 million bpd for the April–June period.

Technically, crude prices have breached key support levels. Brent failed to hold above the crucial $63 threshold earlier in the week, while WTI has dropped below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, now at $61.44 and $61.36, respectively. The immediate resistance for WTI is identified at $61.14, with near-term support at $60.08. A break below this level could expose the next downside target at $59.14. Conversely, a move back above $61.40 would challenge the current bearish bias.

Despite strong U.S. crude storage demand, oversupply concerns continue to dominate sentiment. Market participants are also keeping an eye on Baker Hughes’ weekly rig count—an important indicator of future U.S. oil and gas production. Adding to the complex market landscape are ongoing geopolitical tensions. Reports of a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened fears of regional supply disruptions, while the status of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and developments in Ukraine remain pivotal to market dynamics.

In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure as the market digests a potential rise in OPEC+ output, growing U.S. inventories, and escalating geopolitical risks. Traders will continue to monitor inventory data and diplomatic developments closely for further direction.