HG MARKETS:

Oil prices have rebounded following a sharp decline, as concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies continue to affect market sentiment. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have dampened hopes for increased energy exports from Russia, contributing to ongoing volatility in crude markets.

At the same time, growing global trade disputes are threatening oil demand, leading the International Energy Agency to lower its consumption forecasts for late 2024 and early 2025. Despite strong supply growth, energy traders remain cautious, as persistent instability could trigger further price spikes.

Experts in the market, such as those trading with IC Markets, emphasize the high risk involved in trading derivatives. They advise only using capital that one can afford to lose, as trading derivatives may not be suitable for all investors. A thorough understanding of the risks is crucial, and independent advice may be necessary before entering transactions. Analysts caution that while short-term projections suggest bearish trends, geopolitical events could sustain market volatility, making energy a key hedge against risk.

Natural gas prices are hovering around $4.09, showing a slight increase of 0.05%. However, they are struggling to break through a key level at $4.16, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4.22 adding resistance in the short term. Longer-term support remains intact with the 200-day EMA at $3.88. A breakthrough above $4.16 could lead to further gains, but failing to clear this level may result in selling pressure, pulling prices toward support at $3.96 or even as low as $3.75.

In the oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading at $67.01, down 0.05%, and remains below a critical pivot point at $67.31, signaling bearish sentiment. The 50-day EMA at $67.28 adds additional resistance. If WTI fails to rise above $67.31, it could fall to support at $66.34, with a deeper decline possibly reaching $65.27. However, a move above $67.31 could shift momentum, with the potential to push prices toward $68.19 and eventually $69.26. The 200-day EMA at $69.75 remains a significant long-term hurdle.

Brent crude is trading at $70.31, down 0.04%, and remains under pressure below the pivot point at $71.07. The 50-day EMA at $70.58 acts as immediate resistance, with the 200-day EMA at $73.13 forming a stronger barrier to the upside. Failure to break above $71.07 could lead to further declines, with key support levels at $68.61 and $67.07. However, if Brent manages to hold above $71.07, prices could rise toward $73.38, with the potential to reach $74.87. The outlook remains bearish unless Brent breaks decisively above $71.